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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.