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Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.