Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
