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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still