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New research suggests that hardline migration policies enacted by governments worldwide have significantly benefited people smugglers, fuelling demand and enabling them to increase their prices.

Central Conclusions Based on Tens of Thousands of Interviews

The results, drawn from conversations with thousands of migrants and numerous smugglers, are being shared as officials convene to debate strategies to address smuggling networks.

“Authorities claim they want to ‘shatter the business model’ of smugglers, yet our data shows the opposite is occurring,” noted a lead researcher involved in the study.

The research leverages over 80,000 interviews with individuals migrating around the world. In excess of 50,000 participants said they used smugglers, with many linking their decision to the absence of feasible options for legal migration.

Traffickers Indicate Rising Demand Due to Harsher Measures

The study team also interviewed 458 smugglers in West and North Africa. “Numerous smugglers told us that tighter border measures is in fact fuelling demand,” explained a research lead.

Illustrating this trend focused on smugglers operating on the central Mediterranean route. Despite the fact that irregular arrivals dropped in one recent year, nearly half of the smugglers said demand for their services had risen, largely because of stricter enforcement. “Rather than disrupting their business model, it is being enhanced.”

• Rising Costs: Among the smugglers surveyed, 57% reported they had hiked their fees.
• Reason for Increase: A significant majority of them linked the increased costs to the increased risk they faced due to tough migration policies.
• State Involvement: Close to 50% of smugglers admitted being in touch with state agents such as border guards, indicating widespread complicity.

Why People Migrate and the limited Role of Smugglers

Despite common claims that smugglers entice people into unauthorized journeys, only 6% of the respondents said smugglers had influenced their choice.

Instead, most of them stated the decision had been made independently or had been shaped by friends or relatives who were already abroad.

The analysis also looked at who was prone to use smugglers, finding that those leaving insecurity and restrictions of their fundamental freedoms commonly did, as did those starting more dangerous routes.

“The evidence makes it clear that smugglers are not the cause of irregular migration,” explained a research director. “Rather, analysis indicates the lack of official and safe pathways to clarify why people turn to smugglers.”

Lessons for Authorities

Advocates have consistently argued that by restricting legal migration pathways such as family reunification, policymakers are forcing migrants into the hands of smugglers.

“When legal options shrink, the influence of smugglers increases,” the findings suggest. “If policymakers ignore what drives individuals to smugglers, they end up strengthening the very networks they’re trying to stop.”