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Vladimir Putin is starting a short visit to India, where he is scheduled to meet PM Narendra Modi and attend an yearly high-level meeting conducted by the two states.

India and Russia are expected to sign a several accords during the visit, which comes months after the United States ramped up diplomatic pressure on India to stop buying Russian energy.

It also happens amid the US President administration conducting a set of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an effort to resolve the conflict.

India and Russia have been close allies for decades, and Putin and Modi enjoy a warm connection. Here is a look at why they both depend on each other – and what to watch for as they hold talks.

A Strategic Partnership, Commercial Pacts and International Dynamics

Why are relations with India key for the Russian leadership?

To begin with, consider the figures:

• A demographic of nearly a one and a half billion people.
• An economy growing over 8%. India is the world's most rapidly expanding large economy.

That establishes it as a extremely lucrative destination for Russian products and resources – especially petroleum.

India is the world's number three user of petroleum and has been buying large volumes from Russia. That wasn't always the case. Prior to the Kremlin's comprehensive military action of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India's oil supplies were Russian.

That percentage surged to 35% as India capitalized on Russian cheaper rates triggered by penalties against Moscow and Russia's limited ability to sell to the European market.

India was content. Washington was displeased.

In October, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, arguing that by buying oil from Russia, India was helping to fill the Kremlin's military budget. Purchases from India for Russian oil have since dropped. President Putin will be anxious for India to continue purchasing.

For Moscow, arms transfers to India are an additional priority and have been since the USSR era. In the run-up to Putin's visit, there were indications that India plans to buy cutting-edge Russian combat aircraft and air defence systems.

Russia, hit by a labour crisis, also regards India as a important supplier of skilled workers.

But there's international posturing at play, too.

The Kremlin takes pleasure in proving that Western campaigns to ostracize it over the war in Ukraine have failed.

Traveling to India and meeting Prime Minister Modi is one way of doing that.

So is going to China and holding talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the very trip. The picture of the three leaders smiling and chatting with each other broadcast a clear message that, despite the war in Ukraine, Moscow has influential partners who endorse the concept of a "global order not dominated by the West".

Russia praises its "no limits partnership" with China.

It is no less emphatic about its "special and privileged strategic partnership" with India.

That is a sharp difference to Moscow's tense ties with the European Union.

"I think the Kremlin is sure that the West, even Europe, completely failed," believes political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov.

"Moscow has not been cut off, because we have links to Asia and the Global South. Economically, this is the way forward. In that sense Russia returned as the principal actor in these areas of the globe, reminiscent of the Soviet Union."

This week, though, expect to hear about Moscow-Delhi ties, economic agreements and increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

Test of Modi's Strategic Autonomy

Putin's visit to Delhi is taking place at a critical time for Modi and India's international aspirations.

India-Russia ties go back to the Cold War and have survived irrespective of the changing international landscape.

Putin has likely put more attention into this relationship than other Russian leaders before him.

As for Modi, notwithstanding facing considerable scrutiny from US and European governments to condemn Russia over its war in Ukraine, he maintained that talks was the only way to end the hostilities.

This was India's "sovereign decision-making" at play – with Modi maintaining a unique place in the geopolitical order where he cultivated warm ties with Moscow while keeping his relationship with the West at the same time.

That functioned – until Trump returned to the White House. India-US ties have reached an nadir in recent months as the two countries have been unable to settle the tariff deadlock.

In this scenario, Putin's visit takes on more significance for Modi than previously because it will examine India's geopolitical autonomy. He will be walking the proverbial delicate balance here.

Modi would want to prove Indians at home and in the wider world that he still views Putin as his friend and has not succumbed to pressure from Trump, whom he has earlier called his "true friend".

But he has also faced calls from his partners in Europe – only this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a rare co-authored column in a major newspaper criticising Russia's stance on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to guarantee that the deepening of India-Russia ties does not detract from continuing discussions with the US and his relationship with Europe.

"For India, the difficulty is walking a fine line – preserving sovereignty while managing influence from Washington and dependence on Moscow," noted a local research group.

Modi's additional goal will be to unlock the full capacity of two-way commerce between India and Russia.

Analysts have repeatedly said that the commercial ties between the two close partners has underperformed for decades.

Their two-way commerce jumped to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, rising from {just